Today
is the day. Millions of Americans will cast their ballots to select their next
president. After two years of polling, debate and drama it has all come down to
this. I am not sure anyone in 2014 could have foreseen how this race would
shake out, but here we are. Pundits and journalists have gone on and on about
how unpredictable this election cycle has been but as we enter voting day I am
sure I am hardly alone in anxiously awaiting the results.
Hillary
Clinton and Donald Trump will be competing to win the electoral college. As a
brief explanation, each state is allotted a certain number of votes based upon
its population/size of its congressional delegation. The smallest states,
Wyoming, and Alaska, for example, have 3 electoral votes and California is the
largest with 55. A presidential candidate wins the state by receiving the most
votes across the state. A candidate does not need to win the most votes
nation-wide to become president.
In
the final moments the election has tightened. This is normal. How much it has
tightened is a matter of conjecture. It is widely assumed that Donald Trump is
behind, which most polling supports. However, as was shown in the last Canadian
federal election polls can be inaccurate and how polls play out on a local
level can be unclear. This is because getting out the vote (GOTV) is a critical
component. It has been said that the Trump campaign has very little ground
game. He won the nomination through a mass appeal to voters who were often
disengaged from the process. The grassroots support then is suspect. He is
unlikely to have rooms full of old church ladies who made calls for George H.
W. Bush doing the same for him. An exceptional ground game is what won the
presidency for Obama in 2008 and 2012.
The
Clinton campaign has a stronger campaign but a dangerous problem. Her voters
are not enthusiastic about her candidacy. They fear a Trump victory and that is
driving many of them, but for some it is hard to be excited about Hillary
Clinton.
That
all said, Five Thirty-Eight, a blog that got its start tracking elections,
gives Clinton 2/3 odds of winning the election.
There is no doubt that her path to victory is clearer, but it is hardly
inevitable. One thing I worry about is that Trump voters may be reluctant to
express their support to pollsters given the negative associations he has. The
'silent majority' phenomena may be at play, or the Bradley Effect.
The American public may be less willing to accept a woman president than they
let on.
For
those watching at home, there are fourteen swing states to watch for. In order
of their polls closing: Florida, Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio,
Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado,
Iowa, Nevada. Some of these are closer than others, but given the
unpredictability it is wiser to keep the list wide. For information on all the
polls there is RealClearPolitics.
One
of my biggest concerns going into this election is the obsession with the
presidential race. A third of the Senate, all of the House of Representatives
and number of governorships are up for grabs. I haven't heard anything on these
races. I have no doubt that a number of odious candidates are sneaking by with
help of the distraction Clinton and Trump have provided. In the fallout of the
election, assuming no crisis ensues, attention will likely turn to the new
Senators, Congressmen and Governors who America has to deal with.
This
presidential election does not reflect the Americans I know and I am sure the
overwhelming majority will be glad to have it behind them. I hope a high
turnout and lack of issues ensures that the election ends with a clear winner.
Best of luck, America, make good choices.
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